993
ACUS01 KWNS 072004
SWODY1
SPC AC 072003
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2026
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHER
HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS, THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY,
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..20Z UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK WITH THIS UPDATE. IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
SD, CLOUD BREAKS ARE SUPPORTING DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER RECOVERY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THIS EVENING, WILL PROMOTE SOME NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF AN EAST/WEST-ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SD. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OR IN THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. IF THESE STORMS CAN DEVELOP INTO THE
WARM SECTOR, THEY COULD POSE A LOCALLY GREATER RISK OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE TORNADOES -- GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN A LARGE COMPONENT OF
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION,
STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE AND POSE MAINLY A SEVERE-WIND RISK.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE A SEVERE MCS COULD EMERGE
FROM THIS ACTIVITY OR STORMS FORMING TO THE WEST AS THEY TRACK
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW FOR HIGHER
SEVERE-PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 07/07/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1118 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2026/
..DAKOTAS/MN
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS STATES, WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT TOPPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
AND EXTEND FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO WESTERN MN BY EVENING,
WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS
WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY BUILD INTO THE GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS SD. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS, THERE IS SOME RISK OF A LINEAR MCS TRACKING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SD/SOUTHERN ND INTO WESTERN MN
WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ONGOING STORMS OVER NORTHEAST SD MAY ALSO PERSIST, ALONG WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS COULD
ALSO POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..VA/NC
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM SOUTHERN VA INTO
NC. AREAS OF STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN BE AT RISK OF STRONG STORMS
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
..TX/LA
STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN
VICINITY OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN RISK.
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