392
ACUS03 KWNS 080713
SWODY3
SPC AC 080712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY EVOLVE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..DISCUSSION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MAY
BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO VALLEY/PLATEAU THROUGH
SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. RIDGING IS ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE
BUILDING ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. GREAT
PLAINS AND EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHILE POSITIVELY TILTED LARGER-SCALE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING GRADUALLY
SHIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
THE EVOLUTION OF WEAK REMNANT TROUGHING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS REMAINS MUCH MORE UNCLEAR. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT A BELT OF CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PERHAPS THROUGH SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION APPEARS MOST
CERTAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS REGIME, AIDED BY A
CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LOWER THROUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR (PROBABLY BASED CLOSER TO
850 MB THAN 700 MB), ABOVE A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER.
FOCUSED IN ZONES OF STRENGTHENING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, OR BOUNDARIES, THE ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST SMALL ORGANIZING
CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..KERR.. 07/08/2026
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