899
ACUS02 KWNS 081704
SWODY2
SPC AC 081701
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LOWER MO AND OH
VALLEYS...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSING A RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSOURI TO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, AND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..LOWER MO TO LOWER OH VALLEYS
ONE OR MORE MCVS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MO/MID-MS
VALLEY VICINITY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THESE FEATURES MIGRATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH A
VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL. AN
INITIAL CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL AND SHIFT
EAST ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND
CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY AND EVENTUALLY INTO TN OVERNIGHT. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING COULD MAINTAIN
SOME SEVERE RISK EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
INTO TN AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOME ACROSS THIS
AREA TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A POCKET OF RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
MORE MODEST MOISTURE EXPECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONG
HEATING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POCKETS OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. INITIAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL POSE A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WITH TIME, SUFFICIENT
CLUSTERING/OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION IS EXPECTED AND ONE OR MORE LINEAR
SEGMENTS WILL EVOLVE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS/NE. SEVERE GUST
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA, A SEPARATE AREA OF SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL POSE A RISK
FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS DURING THE EVENING.
..MID-ATLANTIC
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE AROUND 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST CAMS GUIDANCE INDICATE A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREA AND
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF
STORMS AND EXPECTED DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK.
..AZ
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATED THROUGH EVENING.
..LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN MODEST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY ON
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
INSTABILITY.
..LEITMAN.. 07/08/2026
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