264
ACUS01 KWNS 090102
SWODY1
SPC AC 090100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2026
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND IN
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
AT MID-LEVELS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A MOIST
AIRMASS IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE 60S F WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S F EAST. A FRONT IS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA, WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE RAP HAS AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. THE
INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE MORE INTENSE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
FURTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM WESTERN KANSAS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED FURTHER WEST INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING, WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED AND A BROKEN LINE SEGMENT IS ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE STORMS,
WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE EAST AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP AT DENVER HAS 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTING THAT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE RAP ALSO SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS
EVENING. A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO, NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, ONCE A MORE
SUSTAINED COLD POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING. BENEATH THE RIDGE, A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WHERE
THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE INSTABILITY MAX, THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F, AND THE RAP HAS A
POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG).
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THE LATEST RAP HAS AN SOUTH-TO-NORTH AXIS OF INSTABILITY ANALYZED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. NEAR THIS AXIS, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP NEAR THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND
GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/09/2026
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