210
ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND
PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
..SYNOPSIS
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE BUILDING HEIGHTS, THE 12Z MODELS
INDICATE MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS (SOME OF CONVECTIVE ORIGIN)
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS, LOWER OH,
AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY FRONT, THE POSITION OF
WHICH MAY BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND RATON MESA, WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN EML TO YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG. DESPITE ONLY MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS, AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL. 12Z CAM GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE INITIAL STORMS INTO A BOWING,
LINEAR MODE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE WIND RISK SPREADING EAST INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES.
..EASTERN KS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EML WILL OVERLIE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S TO YIELD MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 2500-3500+
J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
REMNANT MCV TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. SOME ENHANCEMENT
OF THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MCV/SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCALLY AUGMENT VERTICAL SHEAR,
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRIDAY
NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS AND OH RIVERS. THAT ACTIVITY MAY
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING OVER THE TN VALLEY; HOWEVER, A
REMNANT MCV MAY SUPPORT A REINVIGORATION OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON FROM
THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD CAROLINA
COAST. THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS,
FEATURING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND OCCURRENCES, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM CLUSTERS.
..MID-ATLANTIC
SOME MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THAT
FEATURE, COUPLED WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IN THE AREA, WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS AMIDST A MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
30-35 KT, WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
A NUMBER OF THE 12Z CAMS SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST/NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL AID IN THE WATER LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MN AND EASTERN SD
DESPITE BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
MODEL SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 30 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL OCCURRENCES.
..MEAD.. 07/09/2026
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