747
ACUS11 KWNS 091743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091742
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-091945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OHIO VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091742Z - 091945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVOLVE FROM EASTWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS NOT CLEAR, BUT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH STRONG HEATING AND MID/UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS, SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE CIRRUS PLUME FROM THE MCV. WITH THE MCV
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST, SHEAR/FORCING ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
MINIMAL. THE DEGREE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE TIED TO HOW
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES. A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
..WENDT/HART.. 07/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36408908 36718904 37188902 37788916 38238836 38388777
38178731 37468677 37038649 36508682 36398764 36378829
36408908
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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