279
ACUS01 KWNS 100059
SWODY1
SPC AC 100057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2026
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE OZARKS, MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ARIZONA.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A 1005 MB LOW IS
LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA, ALONG WHICH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
ONGOING. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, THE RAP HAS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWPS
AT GOODLAND AND DODGE CITY HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. THIS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE,
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS WITHIN
THE LINE ITSELF...SEE MCD 1564. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING, WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY STRONGER.
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S F, AND THE RAP HAS A POCKET OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS
ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE INSTABILITY MAX WITHIN AN AREA
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS...SEE MCD 1565. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF CORES.
..OZARKS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. NEAR THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS, THE
RAP SHOWS AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY, WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN
THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
ONGOING NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS, AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THIS LINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND IN THE OZARKS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEAR THIS
AXIS, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F, AND
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE ARE VERY STEEP. THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.
..BROYLES.. 07/10/2026
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