423
ACUS11 KWNS 100122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100120
KSZ000-NEZ000-100245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NE INTO WESTERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475...
VALID 100120Z - 100245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS IS ONGOING AT 0105 UTC ACROSS
EASTERN CO, WITH MEASURED GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, WITH MLCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 1500 J/KG AND MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SOME INCREASE IN MLCINH IS ALSO UNDERWAY WITH THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, THE LONGEVITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
INTO MID/LATE EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW AND SOMEWHAT GREATER DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN PLACE, MAINTENANCE OF THE ONGOING LINE AND AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SEVERE-WIND THREAT (WITH LOCALIZED 75+ MPH GUSTS)
APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO MID/LATE EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY REMAINING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS. DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 9 PM CDT.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 07/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 41010199 41030116 41050040 40849966 39829913 39259887
38949893 38259933 37709989 37630032 37590076 37630200
38010199 39060189 41010199
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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