139
ACUS03 KWNS 100730
SWODY3
SPC AC 100729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
.. SYNOPSIS
THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST 500-MB HEIGHTS (NEARING 600 DAM) BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE DAKOTAS. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A HIGHLY-POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH, WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW, ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM WEST-TO-EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THE PRIOR TWO DAYS.
.. SOUTHEAST
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60FS AND 70FS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE
PROXIMITY OF A CLOSED LOW/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED SINGLE CELL AND CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
.. ARIZONA
MODEST EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ARIZONA ON SUNDAY
AS THE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN US. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH THIS MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT AROUND 30 KNOTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER-50FS TO MID-60FS. THE WARM, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW OF THESE STORMS MOVING
WEST, OFF THE TERRAIN. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
..MARSH.. 07/10/2026
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