227
ACUS48 KWNS 100901
SWOD48
SPC AC 100859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN US
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK, THIS RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE IN CENTRAL CANADA. ONE
PARTICULARLY STRONG TROUGH WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
.. TUESDAY/DAY 5
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70FS AND 80FS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-60FS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AMIDST SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPPORTING THIS
ARE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR THE SUPERCELL
COMPOSITE INDEX TO BE GREATER THAN 1.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF QUEBEC AND MOVE INTO AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SPREAD WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM AFTERNOON TO
OVERNIGHT, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO OCCUR, EVEN INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
.. FRIDAY/DAY 8
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
WESTERN US RIDGE AND NEAR THE BASAL REGION OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER-80FS TO MID-90FS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60FS. PARCEL TRAJECTORIES AROUND THE
WESTERN RIDGE DO NOT FAVOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER, SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REST ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE NUMBER OF STORMS.
..MARSH.. 07/10/2026
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