408
ACUS02 KWNS 101721
SWODY2
SPC AC 101719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURROUNDING THIS AREA,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST TOWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
BY PRIOR DAY CONVECTION, WITH A SURFACE LOW/MCV ALSO NOTED OVER THE
REGION IN THE VICINITY OF MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WHILE OUTFLOW ARCS ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY/OZARKS TOWARD THE OK/KS BORDER. FURTHER EAST, ANOTHER UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN U.S.
..OZARKS TO THE TN VALLEY
12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT, SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
LOW AND TRAILING OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING
SURFACE FRONT. INCREASING MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT AROUND 25
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AMID A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
(1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE) AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD FOSTER ONE OR MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHWEST NM
STRONGER MIDLEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/GREAT BASIN. STEEP LOW-TO-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH ARE
PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CLUSTER MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE
AND HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
..EASTERN NM INTO OK
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NM. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK NEAR A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (NEAR-70 F
DEWPOINT) WILL SUPPORT 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS
COULD HELP PRODUCE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN MODEST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING AND
CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS/STORM INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 07/10/2026
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