485
ACUS11 KWNS 101917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101917
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-102115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101917Z - 102115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI.
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS STRENGTHENED RECENTLY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT COOLER
PROFILES ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING EPISODIC STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH BRIEF
HAIL CORES AND LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. A SEVERE GUST WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED WITH A COLLAPSING STORM JUST SOUTHWEST OF KSTJ.
THIS AREA OF STORMS IS SMALL, BUT SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED WITH UPPER
SUPPORT. AS SUCH, SOME FURTHER STORM STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS
GRADUAL HEATING OCCURS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. OTHER ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD/NORTHEAST OF
THIS CLUSTER TOWARD IA WITHIN A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE.
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 07/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40019463 40369363 40899200 40769147 40439132 40219154
39469236 39279345 39339426 39469483 39789458 40019463
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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