242
ACUS11 KWNS 101952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101952
FLZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101952Z - 102145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BRING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS
AT OR ABOVE 70 F ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA) HAS RESULTED IN STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION (MLCAPE OF 3000-3500+
INDICATED BY LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS). WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAIN WEAK, THIS STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PW (AROUND 2 INCHES) WILL
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SEVERE GUST)
AS CONVECTION EVOLVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EXPANSIVE BERMUDA HIGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR THE SEVERE
RISK TO REMAIN LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT AND SEVERITY, WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 07/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
LAT...LON 27688151 26888083 26768076 26648089 26528115 26298144
25988168 25888177 25998199 26498228 26898250 27238270
27418279 27568283 27838292 28008288 28208281 28278264
28268242 28178208 28018188 27688151
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page