750
ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STORMS
WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR IN PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, UPSLOPE FLOW IS PRESENT OVER
MUCH OF KANSAS, EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ARE IN THE 50S F AND THE RAP
SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IN ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP AT PUEBLO HAS 0-6 KM NEAR 45
KNOTS, AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND SHORT MUTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
LATER THIS EVENING.
..MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S F.
ALONG THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS, THE RAP HAS A POCKET OF
STRONG INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000
TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN MISSOURI, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE WSR-88D
VWP AT ST. LOUIS HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES THIS
EVENING...SEE MCD 1582.
FURTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE 70S F. THE RAP SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEAR THIS ZONE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN OHIO. THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
..FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NEAR THIS AXIS, THE
RAP HAS SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9
C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/11/2026
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