421
ACUS11 KWNS 110337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110336
MOZ000-KSZ000-110530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 110336Z - 110530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF A
REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO. THIS
CONVECTION IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, BUT RICH MOISTURE (WITH PW
NEAR 2 INCHES) AND MODERATE MUCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
GENERALLY MODEST (AROUND 25-30 KT), WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE
LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY OF ANY PARTICULAR STORM. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. STORM INTERACTIONS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS, THOUGH THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RATHER LOCALIZED.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 07/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38149835 38129477 38029214 37519191 37039188 37069281
37119514 37119727 37189814 37609829 38149835
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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