369
FNUS22 KWNS 110706
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE INTERIOR
CANADIAN PROVINCES ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. RESIDUAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE EJECTING TROUGH AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA, EASTERN WYOMING, AND FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...
A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO IDAHO, WHERE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 MPH, POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH. WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR EVEN BELOW 10% WITH THESE
FORECAST WIND GUSTS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. ERCS
FUELS GUIDANCE EXCEEDS THE 90TH-95TH ANNUAL PERCENTILES, BUT OTHER
SOURCES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MORE GREEN VEGETATION THAT IS NOT
ACCOUNTED FOR IN ERCS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUALITY OF
FUELS, ONLY ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. HOWEVER,
FURTHER UPGRADE TO CRITICAL IN THE DAY 2 UPDATE IS POSSIBLE AS
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND FUEL READINESS BECOME CLEARER.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET
WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADAS INTO THE
CASCADES ON SUNDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10-15%, COMBINED WITH MODESTLY RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS AT THE 80TH
ANNUAL PERCENTILE) WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..HALBERT.. 07/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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