094
ACUS02 KWNS 111736
SWODY2
SPC AC 111735
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...
CORRECTED FOR WORD USAGE
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
..PORTIONS OF CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD NORTH OF THESE
REGIONS. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, THOUGH WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. A MODEST SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS MAY EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER, SURFACE
HEATING MAY BE MORE MUTED IN THIS AREA. STRONGER HEATING IS MORE
PROBABLE FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. WHERE THE
MOST FAVORABLE PARAMETERS OVERLAP, SCATTERED STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
..ARIZONA
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AROUND 30 KT OF MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM.
STRONG HEATING OF THE LOWER DESERTS ALONG WITH GREATER MOISTURE
MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..UPPER GREAT LAKES
MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL PROMOTE MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
35-45 KT. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BE STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MANY STORMS CAN FORM. THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PRESENT WOULD LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WITH A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANY
UPGRADE IN RISK CATEGORY, THOUGH STORMS COULD BE INTENSE IF THEY
FORM.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON BUOYANCY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG, BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK. ANY GREATER
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE TIED TO WHERE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
CAN FORM.
..WENDT.. 07/11/2026
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