339
ACUS11 KWNS 111827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111827
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-112030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111827Z - 112030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR
OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DATA
DEPICT ONGOING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECTATION IS FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMID CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING. AIDED BY
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-TO-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, STORMS WILL
THEN PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAIN WEAK (LESS THAN 30 KTS OF FLOW
SAMPLED BELOW 200 MB BY THE 18Z JAX OBSERVED SOUNDING), MODERATE
BUOYANCY, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND PW EXCEEDING 1.7 INCHES
WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR AN OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORM MODE AND
WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
(GENERALLY 45-55 MPH WITH A LOCALIZED GUST TO 55-65 MPH POSSIBLE).
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR THE SEVERE RISK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED AND LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 07/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30568551 30128545 29818531 29678508 29698475 29758458
29838439 29918420 29918404 29868388 29628359 29208310
28958286 28738276 28368265 28048250 27908226 27748177
27818137 28118100 28428085 28948081 29438100 30298136
30688140 31138132 31468114 31648111 31978135 32168174
32268223 32278293 32178342 31978394 31718451 31458499
31168531 30778543 30568551
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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