724
ACUS11 KWNS 112223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112223
NMZ000-120030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112223Z - 120030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
WITH ONGOING STORMS THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONSIDERATION.
DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL INTO NORTHWEST GUADALUPE COUNTIES HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME
SIGNS OF FORWARD PROPAGATION WITH A RADAR-DEFINED FINE LINE
PRECEDING THE PARENT UPDRAFTS BY 5-10 MILES. THE AMBIENT INFLOW AIR
MASS EXHIBITS FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS, RESULTING
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING STEEP LAPSE RATES. WHILE
OVERALL BUOYANCY IS RELATIVELY MEAGER, THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AS
DEPICTED IN SOME MORE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
..MEAD/THOMPSON.. 07/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34880557 35250531 35540498 35700459 35550426 35110405
34870381 34420374 34180396 34040424 34030480 34300531
34880557
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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