461
ACUS01 KWNS 120559
SWODY1
SPC AC 120557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS, EASTERN GEORGIA, AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
..CAROLINAS/GEORGIA
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CAROLINAS, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S F. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER
MOST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA, REACHING NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC COAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH THE STORMS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MLCAPE MAXIMIZING
IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE, WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5
C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..SOUTHERN ARIZONA
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S F. BY
AFTERNOON, AN AXIS OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THIS AXIS AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL FORM ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WITH ANY LINE SEGMENT THAT CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED.
..WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE MOIST AXIS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED, ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD INITIATE NEAR THE MOIST
AXIS IF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH. IN THAT CASE, A
CELL OR TWO COULD FORM AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/HALBERT.. 07/12/2026
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