199
ACUS11 KWNS 121927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121927
TXZ000-NMZ000-122130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH
PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121927Z - 122130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED, AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW
FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST OK. MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING AROUND 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE, WHILE STRONG
HEATING HAS ALLOW LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BECOME QUITE STEEP.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, AND COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY, SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS,
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING NOTED ON THE 18Z AMA RAOB AND STEEP 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 07/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33499978 33370008 33270053 33280172 32990285 32800397
33280422 34440417 35160374 35750263 35880176 35750151
34630122 34540114 34080002 33809983 33499978
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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