569
ACUS11 KWNS 122344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122343
AZZ000-130115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...
VALID 122343Z - 130115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM CLUSTER THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2340 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS FROM
THE SOUTHERN MOGOLLON RIM AND ADJACENT DESERT REMAINS UNSTABLE
(SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG) AND MODESTLY SHEARED. BROADER STORM
ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIMITED AND CONTINGENT UPON CONSOLIDATING
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA THIS
EVENING.
THE STRONGER OF THE STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT HAS SHOWN
SOME TENDENCY TO CLUSTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED EAST OF THE PHX METRO EARLY THIS EVENING.
RECENT MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS AT TUS AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS CLUSTER WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..LYONS.. 07/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 31841250 32121316 32731343 35071336 35441328 34991268
34381210 33871113 33241088 32511062 31601048 31371051
31301086 31351126 31841250
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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