456
FNUS21 KWNS 131648
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VALID 131700Z - 141200Z
..MORNING UPDATE
00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DEPICT DEEP INVERTED-V
PROFILES, STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW (IN THE EXCEPTION OF GJT), AND LESS
THAN 0.8" PWAT VALUES. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM REV PORTRAYS A PWAT OF
0.82" (UP TO 0.99" AT 12Z), VERY STRONG LCL-EL WINDS, AND A RESIDUAL
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AMID WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
EVAPORATION AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, THUS MAINTAINING
CURRENT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS. LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE INDICATING
A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CA SOUTHERN COAST RANGES
INTO PARTS OF THE BAY AREA. CONSTRAINED PROBABILITIES (LESS THAN
10%) OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MINIMAL INSTABILITY, AND FORECAST
PWATS GREATER THAN 1" PRECLUDE ISODRYT HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, A
LIGHTNING IGNITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE MIXED DRY FUELS EXIST.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/13/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0149 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TODAY, WITH MUCH OF THE U.S.
DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO EASTERN WYOMING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
...EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
COLORADO...
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO
BE 15-20 MPH. COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15%, AND
CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS EXCEEDING THE 95TH ANNUAL
PERCENTILE), AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
..FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR 10-15 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH) WITHIN A MODESTLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 20-30% RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FUELS GUIDANCE INDICATES
RECEPTIVENESS TO WILDFIRE IGNITION AND SPREAD, WITH ERCS ABOVE THE
95TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE ACROSS THE REGION AND BOTH THE IGNITION AND
SPREAD COMPONENT INDICES NEARLY MAXED OUT. GIVEN THE RECEPTIVENESS
OF FUELS, EVEN THE MORE MODEST COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IDAHO...
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE RANGE OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES WITH STRONG SIGNAL FOR THUNDER IN THE HREF/REFS CALIBRATED
THUNDER PROBABILITIES. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
SHOW DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND LCL-EL MEAN WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 30-35 KTS, SUGGESTING LIMITED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. GIVEN THE
CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS EXCEEDING THE 95TH-98TH ANNUAL
PERCENTILES), LIGHTNING-BASED IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND FAR SOUTHERN
OREGON...
WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST, THIS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE OF
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, DEEP INVERTED-V
PROFILES AND LCL-EL MEAN WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, EVEN WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT CLOSER TO 1 INCH. WITH FUELS GUIDANCE
SHOWING ERCS AT OR ABOVE THE 80TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE, LIGHTNING-BASED
IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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