817
ACUS01 KWNS 131934
SWODY1
SPC AC 131933
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA, AND MONTANA.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/13/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026/
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE US TODAY, WITH ONLY SMALL AREAS OF RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
..FL/GA
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGIME, WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
..AZ
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ, WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS MOVING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ AND SPEADING WESTWARD INTO THE
DESERTS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
..MT
MORNING CAM SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE FORECAST OF A CLUSTER OF
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MT
AND TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT SOME RISK OF A GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THESE
STORMS.
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