227
FNUS21 KWNS 140553
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS,
PROMOTING HOT, DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL FACILITATE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS, HEIGHTENING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL WY AND NORTH-CENTRAL CO
THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ALONG WITH A MORE RESTRICTED/PERIPHERAL MONSOON MOISTURE POOL, WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN CA INTO OR AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL WYOMING
A BROAD SUBSIDENCE REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. EVIDENCED
BY RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SUSTAIN VERY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WHILE SUPPORTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AMID RH AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BY PEAK HEATING. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS (ERCS IN THE 95-98TH
PERCENTILE RANGE) WILL YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION VEERS TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING AMID A SIMILARLY DRY FUELSCAPE AND LOW RH ENVIRONMENT. A
MINOR EXPANSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WAS WARRANTED BASED ON LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE.
...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...
A PLUME OF DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
SIERRA NEVADA WILL ARC NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING, REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. PERIPHERAL MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TAPERING OFF TO 0.70" CLOSER TO THE CASCADE CREST WILL REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR INTO NORTHERN CA. AN UPPER TROUGH IMPINGING
UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
PROMOTE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN
OR. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A THREAT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION,
LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG AND EAST OF THE OR
CASCADES AS A SUBTLE EMBEDDED WAVE ACCELERATES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED AS FAR
NORTH AS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE FUELS ARE INCREMENTALLY MORE
RECEPTIVE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAIN CORES ACROSS EASTERN OR AND
NORTHWEST NV WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4".
THUS, TRIMMED THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED MITIGATING RAINFALL.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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