748
ACUS11 KWNS 141821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141820
FLZ000-141945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141820Z - 141945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE STRONGER WET DOWNBURSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...PULSE-CELLULAR STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE LAST 1-2 HOURS GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING (I.E. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90 F, WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
BREACHED). AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MIX/DEEPEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. MLCAPE SHOULD EXCEED
2000 J/KG ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS, SUPPORTING WET DOWNBURSTS FOR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES, ENOUGH
MOMENTUM FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE GENERATED TO SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS. NONETHELESS, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
VERY SPARSE, PRECLUDING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 07/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 26898206 28338206 28878193 29198165 29178130 28878096
27658032 27038020 26468038 26218063 26288128 26618179
26898206
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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