240
ACUS11 KWNS 150220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150220
MTZ000-150315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488...
VALID 150220Z - 150315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF UPSCALE GROWTH CONTINUES. 75+
MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORM CORES.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS HAVE BEGUN TO MERGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO, RESULTING IN MULTIPLE SEVERE GUSTS, INCLUDING A MEASURED 86 MPH
PER THE KMVH AWOS. THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ATOP
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WHERE AMPLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS (I.E. 85-95 F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 1500+ J/KG
DCAPE PER 02Z MESOANALYSIS). THEREFORE, SEVERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF ONGOING STORMS
CAN GROW UPSCALE FURTHER INTO A BETTER DEFINED MCS. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL, 75+ MPH GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE STRONGER STORM CORES.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 46400853 46300933 46510970 46880971 47310922 47600830
47740776 47800621 47660560 47190541 46920584 46580743
46400853
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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