755
ACUS11 KWNS 150424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150423
MTZ000-150600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488...
VALID 150423Z - 150600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE GUSTS (60-80 MPH) WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...RADAR-MOSAIC AND IR COMPOSITE IMAGERY SHOW A MATURE
LINEAR CLUSTER WITH 50-KFT ECHO TOPS OVER PETROLEUM INTO YELLOWSTONE
COUNTIES MOVING EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL WARM AND IN THE 80S F WITH LOWER TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
OVER GARFIELD INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTIES IN EASTERN MT.
HRRR-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IMPLIES MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG OVER
EASTERN MT WITH AN EASTERLY 40-KT 850-MB LLJ MAINTAINING A MOIST
FETCH INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LINEAR CLUSTER. GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH HEIGHT VEERING TO WEAKER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS (YIELDING 50-KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR), THE RESULTANT WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE
A LINEAR STORM MODE. SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD, BUT THERE MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OCCURRING
INTERMITTENTLY WITH SOUTHERN FLANKING UPDRAFTS AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES
EAST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
..SMITH.. 07/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46040845 46400828 46820835 47200852 47410790 47360666
47030617 46560611 46020626 45860692 45880810 46040845
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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