970
FNUS21 KWNS 151621
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SLE AND UIL DEPICT PWATS OF
0.8-0.9" AND LCL-EL WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KTS. CURRENT (16Z)
SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS THE REGION TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, ADVANCING SURFACE HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. A
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF EVAPORATION AND PREVAILING 30 KT
STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY,
INCREASING CONCERNS FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS GIVEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
FUELS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD FURTHER
EXACERBATE ANY NEW OR ONGOING WILDFIRES. ELEVATED DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL
RANGES/CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, AMID
WIDESPREAD 90-95TH PERCENTILE ERCS AND A RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE. SEE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 07/15/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1259 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY OVER THE CONUS GREAT PLAINS
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BRINGS DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES IN WA AND OR.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CA CENTRAL VALLEY COUPLED WITH BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL PROMOTE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
VALLEY.
..CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES AND CENTRAL VALLEY
ONSHORE FLOW, DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND HIGHER WINDS THROUGH FAVORED
TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA COASTAL RANGES, ADJACENT CENTRAL VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH
(LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS), COMBINED WITH RH OF
15-20% IN THE COASTAL RANGES TO AS LOW AS 10% IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY,
WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE SANTA
BARBARA COAST WHERE LOCALIZED SUNDOWNER WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL
SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS CENTRAL WY. MINIMUM
RH OF 15-20% (CLOSER TO 10% IN CENTRAL WY) COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
PEAK HEATING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXISTING
HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
..CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND OREGON
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPINGE UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY,
INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR INTO
CENTRAL WA AND OR. A COMPLIMENTARY MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO
BE IN PLACE AIDING IN INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH PWATS IN THE 0.7-1.0" RANGE WILL ENABLE A
MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORM MODE, FASTER NORTHERLY STORM MOTIONS
COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND INCREASE IGNITION
PROBABILITY OVER AN INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE. SWIFT MOVING
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE MID-LEVEL JET PUSHES
INTO THE WA/OR COAST OVERNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page