382
ACUS11 KWNS 151903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151903
MTZ000-WYZ000-152030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151903Z - 152030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED, SO A WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING (SHOWN VIA OBSERVATIONS OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S F), AND UPSLOPE FLOW, ARE
ENCOURAGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WY
INTO SOUTHERN MT. DESPITE POOR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SHEAR IN THIS
REGION, 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE
FREE TROPOSPHERE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE-CELLULAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS WITH HEAVIER STORM CORES, THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE GUSTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SPARSE NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 07/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44000976 45111035 45541049 46291036 46840975 47200804
47170694 46730632 46020607 45180635 44570686 44140753
43970820 43830909 44000976
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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