720
FNUS21 KWNS 160531
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET WILL PIVOT INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS FEATURE, IN ADDITION TO MONSOON
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY, WILL YIELD A MIX OF WET/DRY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WA AND THE ID
PANHANDLE TODAY. A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OR/WA
IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW (AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS) TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, FAR NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT CENTRAL VALLEY WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER
DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BROAD DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOWER MOVING AND MAINLY TERRAIN BOUND,
LIMITING LIGHTNING IGNITION POTENTIAL.
..WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE
A 50-60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A PARENT UPPER LOW WILL PUSH
INTO THE WA/OR CASCADES THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AMID
PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE, EVOLVING DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
RESULTANT FAST NORTH/NORTHEAST STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION IN SOME RAIN CORES. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY.
NONETHELESS, FUELS REMAIN RECEPTIVE WITH ERCS HOVERING AROUND THE
90TH PERCENTILE WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE SOME NEW IGNITIONS (WITH
NASCENT FIRES FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OR). A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT
EMERGES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NV AND SOUTHWESTERN ID THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT RECENT RAINFALL HAS MITIGATED FUEL RECEPTIVITY WHICH SHOULD
REDUCE THE OVERALL THREAT.
..PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL VALLEY
BREEZY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY,
ALBEIT ON A SLIGHTLY REDUCED SCALE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LOWER HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY, CONFINING THE THREAT TO ADJOINING
COASTAL RANGES AND TERRAIN GAP FEATURES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RH WILL
NEAR 15%. AS SUCH, TRIMMED EASTERN EXTENT OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
OREGON...
CONSIDERABLY DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS NORTHEASTERN CA,
NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR, AIDED BY THE ADVANCING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW AND RELATED LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 10% DURING PEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE RECENT RAINFALL WAS MINIMAL.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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