497
ACUS11 KWNS 161131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161130
TXZ000-161330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161130Z - 161330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVE INCLUDED EMBEDDED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ONGOING WITHIN A
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG AND NEAR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL TEXAS. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND APPEARS TO BE NEARING PEAK, AROUND 30-35 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS IS WELL SAMPLED FROM THE VAD FROM DFX WHERE 0-3 KM SRH
IS AROUND 250-350 M2/S2. DESPITE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL, MLCAPE AROUND
500-1500 J/-KG REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, A
BRIEF UPTICK IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE DECREASING
AS THE LLJ DECREASES THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AND
BRIEF NATURE OF THIS THREAT, A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..THORNTON/GLEASON.. 07/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29580097 29820075 30030035 30109977 30119948 29929919
29609906 29279916 29089996 29050069 29400098 29580097
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page