358
ACUS11 KWNS 162000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161959
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-162200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161959Z - 162200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE INITIATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNDERWAY NEAR AND NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE PHILADELPHIA AREA,
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PROBABLE THROUGH 5-7 PM EDT. THOUGH
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN RELATIVE ISOLATED IN NATURE,
IT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG
DOWNBURSTS. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THIS REQUIRES A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH, BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...CONVERGENCE WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST VICINITY APPEARS WEAK, BUT HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE PHILADELPHIA AREA
THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES
ACROSS THIS VICINITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE INITIATION
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE.
THIS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED, BUT COULD INCLUDE THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO, AIDED BY UPDRAFT INFLOW
EMANATING FROM A STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT. BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE AND 40-50
KT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, PROFILES APPEAR TO
CONDUCIVE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS,
BEFORE STORMS SPREAD WITH MORE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.
..KERR/GUYER.. 07/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
LAT...LON 40477560 40387444 39957401 39357510 40177618 40477560
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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