052
ACUS11 KWNS 181502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181501
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-181630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181501Z - 181630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS RECENTLY ORGANIZED
IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. STORM
CORES HAVE SHOWN MODEST DEEPENING ON 7 KM MRMS CAPPI OVER THE LAST
30 MINUTES. THE OBSERVED OKX SOUNDING HAD POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(5.3 C/KM) BUT 45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CURRENT
ACTIVITY, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE HAVE HINDERED SURFACE HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STEEP. WHILE
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING, THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ON ACCOUNT OF VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY. A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
..WENDT/THOMPSON.. 07/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 40947548 41437505 41717294 41737225 41407211 40937244
40417446 40947548
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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