793
ACUS11 KWNS 182346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182346
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-190045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NY...LONG ISLAND...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST CT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182346Z - 190045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN EASTWARD-MOVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
LOCALIZED RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OR THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO LONG ISLAND. THE KOKX VWP IS SAMPLING AROUND 45 KT OF
LINE-ORTHOGONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED COLD POOL AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD, DESPITE MARGINAL
BUOYANCY. GIVEN THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL, 30-40 KT OF FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM, AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL STATIC STABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO LOCALIZED/MARGINAL FOR A WATCH.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...
LAT...LON 40417330 40467371 40667399 40947421 41187410 41327367
41217298 40977259 40607272 40417330
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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