965
ACUS11 KWNS 191702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191702
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-191900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF
ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191702Z - 191900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED RISK
FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW-90S F AMID RICH MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S F)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
POOR, THESE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2500+
J/KG MLCAPE FROM COASTAL MS/AL NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AL/TN BORDER. PW
NEAR 2 INCHES AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
RISK FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY GREATER POTENTIAL WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY MARGINALLY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT CAN DEVELOP
ALONG CONSOLIDATED COLD POOLS AMID WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15-20 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWPS). IN
THE NEAR-TERM, LOCALLY GREATER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DOWNSTREAM OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
BIRMINGHAM METRO. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31738633 31018691 30208751 30108837 30168877 30348906
30768941 31298955 31778958 32228954 32618937 33388899
33978862 34858753 34918671 34658587 34458568 34078549
33668540 33288530 32878528 32578540 32248578 31738633
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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