423
ACUS11 KWNS 192030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192030
NEZ000-SDZ000-192230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192030Z - 192230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FIELD OF
TOWERING CUMULUS WITH RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODIFYING THE NEARBY 18Z UNR OBSERVED
SOUNDING FOR NEARBY OBSERVATIONS DEPICTS A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 500 TO 750 J/KG MLCAPE, AND
LCLS AROUND 3 KM AGL. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-50 F.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION
ALONG DEVELOPING COLD POOLS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS;
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE LONGEVITY OF THIS
CONVECTION. WITH THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FLOW, EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
LIMITED TO AROUND 20-25 KTS PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS. THIS LENDS SOME
CREDENCE TO A MORE LIMITED SEVERE RISK COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER
NORTH. THUS, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT COULD
BE CONSIDERED SHOULD A LONGER DURATION RISK FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS EVOLVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 44230018 44089971 43789949 43479954 42930000 42500075
42180211 42120294 42120338 42340366 42760371 43340341
43860270 44210192 44310147 44340124 44230018
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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