213
ACUS11 KWNS 192056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192055
NDZ000-SDZ000-192300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 192055Z - 192300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS (SOME
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) AND LARGE HAIL, PERHAPS TO 2-3+ INCHES IN
DIAMETER.
DISCUSSION...A DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
ND/NORTHWESTERN SD HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF INCREASED VERTICAL GROWTH
OVER THE PAST HOUR, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS PERKINS
AND MEADE COUNTIES IN SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 2050 UTC. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AMID CONTINUED INSOLATION AND ALONG A
SOUTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
A MODIFIED 18Z BIS SOUNDING INDICATES STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT, ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS.
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND FURTHER HODOGRAPH
ELONGATION WITH TIME, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INITIAL, HIGH-BASED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
(POTENTIALLY TO 2-3+ INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND SEVERE OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS TO 80+ MPH. EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL FAVOR COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS (AND A
TRANSITION TOWARDS SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT) THEN
EXPECTED AS CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD WITH TIME. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
COVER THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46600306 47240277 47560236 47740141 47750043 47659973
47419909 47049869 46319820 45639824 45119891 44899991
44790092 44800171 45010249 45300275 45970300 46600306
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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