150
ACUS11 KWNS 192143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192142
MTZ000-WYZ000-200015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MT INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192142Z - 200015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (THROUGH AROUND
01Z). THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A PASSING MIDLEVEL WESTERLY JET
STEAK ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MT (WELL SAMPLED BY THE BLX VWP),
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTH-CENTRAL WY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK BUOYANCY, THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 50 DEG
T/TD SPREADS). THIS, COMBINED WITH A LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND
30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR), WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH
AROUND 01Z. IF A MORE-ORGANIZED COLD POOL CAN EVOLVE, ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 75 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
SEVERE-WIND RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED FOR A WATCH.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 44290627 44580761 44930832 45460847 45780829 45940791
45950743 45870653 45640560 45200491 44910477 44550484
44330538 44290627
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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