630
ACUS11 KWNS 200008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200008
SDZ000-NEZ000-200215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 200008Z - 200215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALLY FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS
IS EVIDENT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SEVERE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EVOLVING ALONG A SURFACE WIND SHIFT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 90S AMID MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS --
YIELDING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BUOYANCY
GRADIENT AMID 30-40 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOCALIZED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH
ISSUANCE.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42519959 42800013 43170026 43580021 43839989 43919940
43849879 43479816 42889800 42459841 42399895 42519959
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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