248
ACUS11 KWNS 200442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200442
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND/NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499...
VALID 200442Z - 200545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY
SPREAD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORM CLUSTER IS
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF SD AS OF 0440 UTC. IN THE SHORT
TERM, MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR (AS
OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE PREFRONTAL 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BIS AND ABR)
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. LONGEVITY OF
THIS CLUSTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO INCREASING CINH AND GENERALLY
MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, BUT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS CLUSTER AS IT MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FARTHER NORTH, A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN, ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE (IF ANY) OF ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SUSTAINED STORMS DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS REGION, MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
WITH GENERALLY WEAK ASCENT AND ONLY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
ANTICIPATED, POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL BECOME POSSIBLE IF TRENDS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTIPLE SEVERE STORMS.
..DEAN/HART.. 07/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45729560 44859765 44999818 45839955 46289982 46779932
49029787 49119698 49329505 49189453 48579426 47909438
45729560
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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