184
ACUS11 KWNS 201337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201337
MIZ000-WIZ000-201530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT
WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201337Z - 201530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL ELEVATED LINEAR SEGMENT HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM INL
AND APX THIS MORNING SHOW AROUND 7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BEING DRIVEN BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. WITH TIME, HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN AND
VEER. ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ROBUST CONVECTION
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 35 KT.
THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS LINEAR SEGMENT TO OUTPACE
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING INCREASES LATER
TODAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING,
THOUGH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AS WELL.
..WENDT/THOMPSON.. 07/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 46548988 47188889 46428704 45818661 45508680 45478777
46548988
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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