111
ACUS11 KWNS 201636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201636
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-201830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IOWAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201636Z - 201830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE
WITH A COMPACT MCS IN EAST-CENTRAL IOWA. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COMPACT MCS
IN EAST-CENTRAL IOWA. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THIS
CLUSTER HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S F. THE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE IT INTO
LESS UNSTABLE AIR IN ILLINOIS. ACTIVITY ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
MCS AND ITS TRAILING OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST GIVEN THE
STRONGER HEATING AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT. RECENT MEASURED
WIND GUSTS AT CEDAR RAPIDS AND IOWA CITY WERE 35 AND 36 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WITH A MESONET SITE ALSO MEASURING 55 MPH IN JONES
COUNTY. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..WENDT/THOMPSON.. 07/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 40259197 41299253 41789250 41919243 41859208 41799169
41739122 41809050 41319033 40619024 40219034 40049106
40059137 40259197
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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