693
FNUS22 KWNS 201914
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE ISODRYT AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE.
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OREGON REMAIN THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR MIXED
WET/DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER, SMOKE, AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ISODRYT AREA, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
IF NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES AND COVERAGE, INCLUDING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH OVERLAP MINIMUM RH
OF 30-40%. ERCS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 80TH-95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THIS AREA.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/20/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0149 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, AMPLE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE ATOP A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CA
INTO OR. THIS WILL YIELD INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH WEAK (ALBEIT
SUFFICIENT) BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OVER THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
OR. WHILE 0.8 TO 1.2 INCH PW MAY PROMOTE A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS,
RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, MINIMAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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