485
ACUS11 KWNS 201948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201948
IAZ000-202145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 201948Z - 202145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA ARE BECOMING SURFACE BASED.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING SOME
SIGNIFICANT. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL IOWA.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR
SUGGEST STORMS ARE BECOMING SURFACE BASED IN NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA.
GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE STORMS, STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. TORNADOES, SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG,
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
GIVEN THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS COULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A
SUPERCELLULAR MODE, BUT COULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH TIME AS
CLUSTERING OCCURS. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
..WENDT/THOMPSON.. 07/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41609368 42419442 42999451 43339437 43499384 43429320
42589229 42079212 41479223 41399268 41529331 41609368
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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