815
ACUS11 KWNS 202336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202335
IAZ000-210100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 500...
VALID 202335Z - 210100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 500 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE
EVOLVING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DES MOINES VICINITY THROUGH 01Z.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST TRENDS IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS NEAR AMES WITH SOME SIGNAL THAT A
LARGER-THAN-RFD-SCALE COLD POOL MAY BE EVOLVING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRECEDES THOSE STORMS WITH THAT FEATURE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND
10 KT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONTINUED STORM MERGERS MAY SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER BOW ECHO CONFIGURATION, WHICH WOULD TRACK
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE LEADING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DES MOINES METRO
AREA. SHOULD THAT SCENARIO UNFOLD, CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST/NORTHWEST,
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD, NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE EAST-WEST FRONT AND NORTH-SOUTH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THAT
REGIME, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
..MEAD.. 07/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41369318 41769365 42159386 42299323 41539249 41229236
41149263 41129287 41369318
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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