385
ACUS11 KWNS 210207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210207
IAZ000-210330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 500...
VALID 210207Z - 210330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 500 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE SCHEDULED
03Z WATCH EXPIRATION. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN STORM COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER DES
MOINES AS OF 0155Z WITH KDMX BASE VELOCITIES INDICATING OUTBOUND
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METROPOLITAN
AREA. ENVIRONMENTALLY, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WITH NO INDICATION OF A REAR-INFLOW JET IN THE KDMX VWP.
NONETHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY, PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS,
SUGGESTS THAT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE
SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION OF THE WATCH. AS SUCH, CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH OR A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE EXISTING WATCH.
..MEAD.. 07/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 40619305 41239371 41809406 41959369 41469234 40789211
40619228 40619305
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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