609
FNUS22 KWNS 211925
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXCEED 50% ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON AND PERHAPS APPROACH 80% IN CENTRAL OREGON. GIVEN
PWAT VALUES OF 0.9-1.25" AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED TRAINING OF
STORMS, WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON. THIS
PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO A SCATTERED DRYT AREA WHERE THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY FUELS,
ONGOING LARGE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY, AND EXPECTED DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THIS LIGHTNING, INCLUDING ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS, NEW LIGHTNING IGNITED WILDFIRES WILL EMERGE.
ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIAL DEEP
PYROCONVECTION ON ACTIVE LARGE WILDFIRES ARE A CONCERN.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/21/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AS A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PROMOTES WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON DAY 2/WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS, ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DESPITE BEING LESS THAN 48 HOURS FROM THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL
DATA (INCLUDING HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE) EXHIBITS PROMINENT
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE; THUS, DISPARITY IN
THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF UPPER/MID-LEVEL FLOW. WHILE A MIX OF
WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISODRYT AREA, A
SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW COULD
RESULT IN EXPASIVE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FORECAST PWAT VALUES DO
APPROACH 0.9-1.25", BUT 20-30 KT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, RESULTING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. GIVEN VERY RECEPTIVE FUELS AND FIRE ACTIVITY IN
THE AREA, A SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO A SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IF THE WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT
REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALLER TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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