285
ACUS11 KWNS 212024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212023
COZ000-UTZ000-WYZ000-NVZ000-212230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212023Z - 212230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED
DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS.
DISCUSSION...18Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM GJT/SLC DEPICTED DRY,
INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES UNDERLYING STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AMID ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED.
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH LCLS OF 2.5-3.0+ KM WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH DOWNDRAFTS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THIS RISK MAY MANIFEST FROM SOUTHEASTERN UTAH/FAR WESTERN COLORADO
INTO CENTRAL UTAH WHERE MARGINALLY STRONGER LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW
(20-25 KTS SAMPLED BY THE GJX/ICX VWPS) AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR (20-25
KTS PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS) MAY PROMOTE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 07/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...LKN...
LAT...LON 37651219 38241325 39261416 40481446 41131416 41611339
41561219 41111100 40631010 40130941 39460876 38790857
37900872 37250932 37091006 37111048 37251135 37651219
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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