974
ACUS11 KWNS 212142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212142
NJZ000-DEZ000-212315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN NJ
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 507...
VALID 212142Z - 212315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 507 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALLY FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- WITHIN
TORNADO WATCH 507.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NJ, WITH SOME LOW/MIDLEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT IN THE
LAST 15 MINUTES OR SO. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR OF
STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF A VERY MOIST PBL (UPPER 70S
DEWPOINTS). THIS, COMBINED WITH A LONG/MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH
(AROUND 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER DIX VWP), WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED
RISK OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, THE AMPLE PBL
MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY EMBEDDED
MESOVORTEX/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..WEINMAN.. 07/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...
LAT...LON 39647539 40107480 40197446 40127406 39967394 39217434
38867476 38907514 39357554 39647539
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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